As the hand of the clock winds down to the crucial U.S. Presidential Election, expected to produce either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump as the country’s 45th president, TONY EGBULEFU writes on the deciding factors in the election

Tuesday, November 8, is the ‘D’ Day for what has turned out to be the most acrimonious race for the White House in contemporary US history. It is Hillary Clinton of the ruling Democratic Party versus Donald Trump of the Republican Party – a polarizing figure, whose electioneering rating well approximated the proverbial phoenix.

From the ashes of a long string of poor straw poll showings, Trump, in the few days leading up to the election, rallied to close the gap to a few inches adrift, thanks to the FBI’s renewed investigation of Clinton over her unprecedented and noisome action of dumping her official and secured email server for a personal server as US Secretary of State-an action that enabled wikileaks to hack her official emails. This action from her exalted position of Secretary of States, is seen as capable of endangering the security of the country. Another factor that has diminished Clinton is the perceived haze on her Clinton Foundation, which have just refused to blow over and which has twice triggered an FBI criminal investigation of her – the latest, coming on the heels of the election.

Unlike in the past, the campaigns of both candidates have drawn less strength and appeal from addressing critical issues that confront the US society. As the election gets underway, a new poll shows that US voters are appalled by the election by reason of their low perception of the two leading candidates and with the Clinton e-mail debacle, think that both candidates of the two leading parties are evenly matched in dishonesty and treachery.

Further on the negative side, what came in liberal doses from both front-runners are mudslinging, exchange of brickbats and fireworks-a situation Trump aggravated with gaffes, faux pas and all that are not politically correct. In this race, some quarters strongly believe that Trump only has respect for white supremacist leanings, while mindlessly alienating the minority populations, the Muslim community and women across all population spectrums.

The Trump allegation of official gaming of the electoral system to favour Clinton put the additional burden on the secretaries of state (state level secretary of state) to step forward at events in the states and through the social media to assure voters that each and every vote would be properly counted. They are making an all-out push to ensure that voters know the election systems are secure and accessible and will produce fair elections.

“The way you vote is absolutely the way that the machines tabulate the count at the end of the night,” Michele Reagan, Arizona secretary of state said in a radio interview.

As Trump doubled down on different population segments of the country, Clinton strove to warm her way to the hearts of the Trump-alienated demographic groups: the women, African-Americans, the Muslim population, Hispanics and Latinos. Despite all that Trump spoke in an audibly politically incorrect tone, there is a strong feeling that he gave voice to the minds of a huge population segment that desires that the U.S. society and values be reworked along some racial and religious lines.

On November 8, Americans will cast their votes, not just to elect the 45th President of the United States, but down to city council members. U.S. presidential elections are localised, meaning each state conducts its own elections. It further means there are different systems for registering voters, selecting voting equipment such as paper ballots, voting machines and the design of ballots. There is, therefore, not just one U.S. presidential election, but 51 (in the 50 states-plus in the District of Columbia).

While there are traditional strongholds of the Democrats and the Republicans, fact is that none of the two main candidates have recorded any significant straw poll lead in the swing states of Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia which, traditionally, are neither hot nor cold for the Democratic and Republican parties, and play a major role on who carries the day.

Clinton, however, has a huge one-up, given that big and populous Democratic states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California, could lead her to victory, especially when it comes down to electoral college voting.

Both candidates suffer from unpopularity, both within their own parties and among the U.S. public. It is remarkable that some big Republicans figures refused to endorse Trump, while YouGov polling shows that just over half of Bernie Sanders’ supporters would back Clinton.

New York Times and CBS News’ polling shows that the two candidates’ popularity is limited by the public’s lack of trust in both of them. Only a third of Americans think Clinton is honest and trustworthy, compared to 35 per cent that think the same of Trump; 57 per cent of the people say they don’t share Clinton’s values, while the number is even higher for Trump, at 62 per cent.

According to The Telegraph, more people think Clinton has the right kind of temperament and personality to be a good president, while Trump has the advantage when it is the candidate who they think could bring about “real change” in Washington.

Also, The Telegraph reports that “Age, race, gender and education are all big deciding points in the presidential race. The polls show that men and whites back Trump, while women and ethnic minorities support Clinton.

“Race has always been a huge dividing line in the US election and the clash between Trump and Clinton is no different. Just 17 per cent of Hispanics and three per cent of black people back Trump, according to recent polling. This could prove significant in this election. For example, Hispanics account for more than a fifth of the population in four key swing states.

“Education is another big demographic division in the race – and there’s a reason why Trump said he “loved the poorly educated”. Among high-school graduates or those with a lower level of education, Trump has the backing of 44 per cent – compared to the 36 per cent who support Clinton. This could prove significant in the swing states of Georgia and Nevada, which both have a high proportion of people failing to graduate from high school.” Who wins on Tuesday is hardly a cut and dry issue.

 

Source: LEADERSHIP