The United States and Russia announced Friday a new multi-step plan intended to bring Syria closer to a negotiated peace deal and to allow humanitarian aid to reach those in need in the war-torn country.
“Today the United States and Russia are announcing a plan which we hope will reduce violence, reduce suffering and resume movement toward a negotiated peace and a transition in Syria…that if followed, has ability t o provide a turning point, a moment of change,” said Secretary of State John F. Kerry.
The deal nearly seemed to have slipped away earlier in the evening, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was thinking of “calling it a day” on Syria talks with the United States, at least until next week, after waiting for more than five hours for Kerry to obtain approval from Washington for a deal he said the two had agreed upon.
In an extraordinary appearance in the hall where reporters waited for an anticipated Kerry-Lavrov news conference, Lavrov suddenly strode in and said that he was trying to be patient, but he still had no word from Kerry, who apparently was seeking White House approval in an hours-long secure video communication with national security principals at home.
“I believe it is important for them to check with Washington,” Lavrov said in English. “That’s why I apologize for the delay. We cannot help it. . . . I hope before Washington goes to sleep, we can get some news,” he told reporters, observing that the “vertical” approval process in a democracy was sometimes difficult. “My appeal to you is to be patient.”
With that, Lavrov strode out again. He was quickly followed by United Nations envoy Staffan de Mistura, who was also cooling his heels while waiting for Kerry. “I hope to see you very soon here,” he said.
A senior administration official, clearly aware of Lavrov’s remarks, then appeared to assure reporters that “Secretary Kerry continues to have discussions inside the United States interagency about the proposals that were discussed today. Those discussions are ongoing, and when we have more to update you with, we will.”
As Kerry has negotiated with the Russians over the past several months, officials at the Pentagon and some at the White House have done little to hide their skepticism about the proposed deal. Some have argued that Moscow was trying to run out the clock until the end of the administration in hopes of a better deal from President Obama’s successor. Others have insisted that Russia is certain that its chances of agreement would worsen, particularly if Hillary Clinton is elected.
In broad terms, the agreement that Kerry and Lavrov have reached calls for a “pause” in the fighting between the U.S.-backed Syrian opposition and forces of President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies — particularly around the besieged city of Aleppo — to allow safe and sustained delivery of humanitarian aid. That is to be followed by a more wide-ranging cease-fire, along the lines of a truce agreed last February that lasted only several weeks.
If the cease-fire continues, the United States has agreed to begin coordinated airstrikes with Russia against agreed terrorist targets in Syria. It is that part of the deal that the U.S. military has consistently objected to, arguing that Moscow cannot be trusted.
Administration officials, appearing frustrated and flustered, confirmed that Kerry and Lavrov — after meetings that began early Friday morning at a hotel on the shore of Lake Geneva — had reached agreement on the detailed accord, and that Kerry was continuing to respond to questions from Washington.
It was unclear here how much, if any, of the principals’ meeting Obama participated in. He left the White House for a golf game at Joint Base Andrews about an hour before Lavrov’s appearance.
As the sun began to set, Lavrov appeared, pacing in the lobby, then retreated with aides to the conference room where the bilateral talks had been held. As 10 p.m. approached, he appeared to banter with the media and then returned to the nearby conference room, where he sat with the door open.
The strange and somewhat embarrassing turn of events for Kerry followed weeks of administration charges that the Russians were dragging their feet on making a deal that would allow humanitarian aid convoys to flow into besieged Syrian communities in hopes of allowing their ally, Assad, to take more territory away from the rebels.
The intensive diplomacy that led to Friday’s meeting began in July, when Kerry discussed with Lavrov, and then carried personally to Russian President Vladimir Putin, an Obama-approved proposal to share intelligence to coordinate their air operations against agreed terrorist groups. Cooperation was to come only after a cease-fire was implemented between the Assad government and its Russian and Iranian backers, and opposition forces backed by the United States and its allies in Europe and the region.
The U.S. strategy has been to appeal to Putin’s long-held desire to be on an equal footing with the United States, and Russia’s own fear of terrorist expansion. Putin appeared to approve of the deal in concept — which set aside the question of Assad’s future — even as the Pentagon raised internal objections and expressed distrust of Moscow.
Russia has insisted its bombing and the Syrian government’s have targeted only terrorist groups, in particular the Front for the Conquest of Syria — or Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, the group formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which recently announced it had broken with al-Qaeda. To the extent opposition forces have been hit, Moscow says, it is because they have joined with the terrorists.
The United States has repeatedly charged Russia and Syria with wanton bombing of civilians.
In technical discussions over the past several weeks, U.S. and Russian military and intelligence officials have mapped out “boxes” in Syria, designating areas with a preponderance of Front forces, those regions where the terrorists overlap with opposition groups, and areas that are primary opposition and civilians. Russia has continued to call on the United States to separate the opposition forces it supports from militant groups.
Asked whether Russia has been “playing for time” and dragging out the talks while helping Assad’s forces gain more territory on the ground, a senior administration official traveling with Kerry said late Thursday that “if we get to a point where we think they’re just playing for time, that’s probably when you’ll see us go in a different direction.”
While the technical group made progress, the diplomatic talks stalled. On Aug. 27, Kerry and Lavrov failed to agree during a meeting in Geneva. In China last weekend, on the margins of the Group of 20 summit, Kerry and Lavrov met again, as did Obama and Putin. Updated documents were exchanged and an agreement was said to be close, but it was not until Thursday afternoon that the two sides believed enough progress had been made that Kerry and Lavrov should meet again and try to close the deal.
The track record for previous Syrian agreements is not good. After years of failed attempts to stem the fighting, Kerry first organized a group of more than a dozen countries, including Russia and Iran, who last November pledged to stop their own attacks and those of their allies inside the country.
In December, the U.N. Security Council bolstered the pledge with a resolution; two months later, the group set a late-February date for implementation.
The truce had been in force little more than a month, when fighting again erupted as Assad’s air force, eventually bolstered by renewed Russian bombing, again began attacking opposition forces. Syrian ground forces, aided by Russian artillery, gradually retook much of the territory it had lost to the opposition. U.N.-sponsored talks between the government and the opposition on a political solution to the five-year civil war quickly fell apart.
In May, as civilians in besieged communities were reportedly dying in significant numbers from starvation and lack of medical care, Kerry convened another emergency meeting. Despite urgent appeals to allow humanitarian aid to safely pass, the level of violence has only increased since then, particularly in the northern city of Aleppo, where the United States and the U.N. have accused Assad forces of using poisonous chlorine gas bombs.
Since early summer, despite Syrian government agreement to allow passage of the aid convoys, virtually none has been delivered because of safety concerns.