I wrote here on June 27, 2015 that going to the G7 summit without a clear plan and backing for someone who will support his agenda as Senate President was Buhari’s first mistake. It proved even more costly than I had thought.

Saraki is a gifted retailer of graft and the Chief Superintendent of Nigeria’s Kleptomaniacs. Whoever hopes for good things from the 8th Senate is ignorant that the insane are in charge of the asylum. Give it to him. Saraki is one smart cookie, always one step ahead. President Buhari is finding out too late, that, integrity and moral character is not enough to rule Nigeria. Any leader who aspires to lead at any level in Nigeria must have some measure of intrigue, ruthlessness and messianic complex with added bonus of willingness to die. These people are not humble at all and they take humility for stupidity. Many of them think they make the Sun shine.

Saraki plotted an elaborate strategy for his emergence. Those in the know warned a party stalwart after their Port Harcourt meeting. He moved quickly but Buhari cooled him down on advise from those he trusted who were actually looking after their own interests. When their eyes opened, they filed the forgery case on hoopla. The forgery case was built on a single document produced by a handful of Senators. The incompetents built their case on this document, and on the premise that Saraki benefitted. Before filling the case, no one was interviewed. The workers were not deposed. Saraki ran against nobody. How can he benefit from nothing? Everything was based on circumstantial evidence that will easily be thrown out for lack of concrete evidence. They ran to the courts on emotion. Cases are not won on emotions. They are won on facts, incontrovertible facts! In Nigeria, they prosecute before gathering evidence. By the time they returned to the Senate to gather evidence, he had created more committees than it was thought possible and given plum positions to those who could squeal to secure their loyalty. He ordered them Jeeps in an austere environment where most of them knew “Ghana must go” will no longer come and they still owe millions in campaign funds. Saraki secured their loyalty and the Senator’s clammed up! They claimed they met the docs on the desks. The workers in the NASS said they knew not who printed or circulated it. The only option left is to prosecute Ekweremadu whose zone did not support Buhari. Ekweremadu was a true beneficiary. He gained from Saraki’s emergence but at what cost? Prosecuting Ekweremadu is a grave political sin in a country divided along ethnic and religious lines. The Presidency was at crossroads. The justice minister – Mallami was confused. The National Prosecution Coordination Committee (a committee of Nigerian judicial experts recruited from all over the world) advised the Justice ministry to withdraw the case to avoid losing in the court and hunting the fingerling while the whale goes free. Case closed!

At the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT), same difference. They brought several charges most of which were watery. Saraki knows he is in hot water with regards to two concrete charges in the laundry list. He did what people with money, power and privilege do when facing criminal charges. He hired almost every SAN in Nigeria with special preference for those skilled in truncating the course of justice. While he can afford to pay millions per day for appearance, the prosecutor is often cash strapped, ill-motivated and often forced to read the body language of key government officials. Saraki and his lawyers deployed every trick in the book to defer the trial and make it look inconsequential. The Senators of course are loyal because he is the only Godfather standing on both legs and in government.

The same prosecutorial blunder happened on the judges case. Judges don’t get illicit money directly. They use their registrars as conduit pipes. Why did they not obtain evidence from them under oath prior to the raid? Why not get the details of every transfer, every property obtained etc. I once wrote in my Tuesday Column in the Premium Times, that if these cases are difficult to prosecute, go after them for tax evasion. That is easy. If you have it, or earned it, did you declare it as your income in whatever business you are engaged in? I had always held Mallami responsible for the failures because he and Magu hated each other. That was confirmed and it has nothing to do with him aiding or abetting corruption. Mallami wants his legacy secured but he is faced with law enforcement whose prosecutorial incompetence is legendary. He proved this by amending the charges against Saraki. Saraki sensed the new change in tactics and approached the man he once derided as a “mere commissioner”. Will it work? I don’t think so but I’m watching closely.

The President gave his VP wide latitude from day one. He trusted him. The VP is not a politician and he has no ambition nor intention of becoming one. Most often, he declines to deploy the powers ceded to him. He does not want to rock the boat. PMB gave him specific instructions before he left that would have shaken some politicians to their boots but he preferred to wait until the president comes back. All the noise about Osinbajo doing more than his boss is hogwash. They work in tandem. Expectedly, their style is different and there is spring to the Vice President’s steps than his much older boss. The duo are committed to letting us imbibe the fact that it is not okay to convert and appropriate government money. They are committed to letting us know that stealing is not okay. Expect more on this

On The Economy
Buhari believed if he builds infrastructure, economic activity will tick up. He delegated that to Prof. Osinbajo. It is almost two years, only one budget has been passed and we all know the kind of budget we were presented with and the drama that came with it. With Buhari, we thought the end of envelope budgeting has come. We were wrong! We got the usual budget of pork. With the NASS, firmly in the hands of those who don’t care about Nigeria’s future or greatness, Buhari got increasingly frustrated. Outside the NASS, he faces foxy loyalists who are after power than he thought. With ill health, he became helpless. Actually, he needed to have left long ago but the fear of what could be done in his absence prompted him to stay on, until his condition became debilitating.

Buhari does not care about the day to day fluctuations in the exchange rate. He does not care what you think or what I think. He cares about the name he leaves behind. That BBC interview given by his wife jolted him. Essentially, he sorrounded himself with loyalists instead of technocrats thinking they had the same patriotic bent like him. He realized too late that he was naive. Before he came back, I was warned to expect a different Buhari on return. I was told he will tell Osinbajo to continue. Actually, he told him what to do in case he dies.

You can accuse Buhari of anything but his love for Nigeria is not in doubt. His integrity and uprightness is not in doubt. APC is in disarray because the two people at the helm are not politicians and are not interested beyond 2019. Osinbajo is not building any coalition. The party apparatchiks are hungry! The federal might is not being deployed for party purposes. All the shenanigans are for 2019. Saraki has the war chest and Atiku has. Expect governors to play pivotal roles.

It is a snowy morning here. I have written enough for a day. I will go and sit by the fireplace and read a book. Thanks for reading.