Category: Opinion

“The year was 1965. I was an innocent starry-eyed 13 year-old and Nigeria was in turmoil. It was the era of the “wetie,” when the houses of politicians and key public-figures were burnt down in the brouhaha that was then Western Nigeria.

We lived in Oke-Ado in Ibadan and our next-door neighbour was Chief Ogundiran, a minister in the government of Chief S.L. Akintola , the Premier of the Western Region. (Ogundiran was famous for only wearing white.) In the spirit of the times, a mob came early one morning and burnt down his house. He jumped out of the window and managed to escape.
Fani-Power, Fani-igbo: I was having private lessons in Mathematics at the home of a colleague, Enitan Abiodun, when we heard the noise of a crowd outside. We rushed to the veranda to see Chief Remi Fani-Kayode (alias Fani-Power), then Deputy Governor of the Western Region, standing on the seat of a moving convertible. He was surrounded by a mob, which was shouting and hailing him. On hearing the noise, Enitan’s mother rushed to the veranda shouting “Awo!” only to discover that the people outside were not supporters of Chief Obafemi Awolowo, but those of his arch-enemies.

The shout of “Awo!” by Mrs. Abiodun brought the procession to a screeching halt. “Who said that? Who said that?” demanded the mob, enraged. “Fani-Power” turned and looked up at us. His eyes were the usual blood-shot red. At the time, many claimed it was because he regularly smoked Indian-hemp. Fani-Kayode pointed to our building and identified to his thugs that the offending shout came from our direction. We did not know that the floor of the convertible he was standing in was loaded with empty bottles. His thugs reached for the bottles and rained them down on us as we all scrambled back inside the house for dear life.” Femi Aribisala describing Chief Remi Fani-Kayode, the father of Femi Fani-Kayode.

Like father, like son: Today, Femi Fani-Kayode, the son of “Fani-Power” is gladly continuing the irresponsible tradition of his father. In recent years, he has been throwing inciting vituperations and launching venomous attacks on some ethnic and religious groups, all in an attempt to remain relevant and score cheap political points. Of recent is this his immorality, bigotry, gross irresponsibility, and sheer ignorance of history displayed in one of his usual inciting write-ups, titled “The Sons Of Futa Jalon” in which he foolishly voiced his sheer hatred against the Fulani tribe, Ahmadu Bello Saurdana of Sokoto, Caliph Shehu Usman Bn Fodio and Islam as a whole.

I have learnt a very vital lesson in life which i always tend to reflect upon in the course of my daily interactions with people of all colours on this earth: SILENCE IS THE BEST ANSWER TO A FOOL. However, in as much as one might be entitled to his opinions which he owe nobody an apology for any reason whatsoever, he must in every respect make sure those opinions remain within personal jurisdictions but in a scenario where such opinions have the tendency to influence or distort the thinking of others or affects their wellbeing, then such a person cannot and will never said to be entitle to such opinions. When people foolishly voice out their opinions to influence the psychology of the gullible few, then it becomes imperative to call them to order for the good of all and sundry.
This prompted the need to call Femi Fani-Kayode to order over his recent ethnic ejaculation against the Fulani race, because ignorance is communicable and once an ignorant person releases the pheromones of his ignorance with pride, the gullible ones could be tempted to emulate him and in no time, the spread of ignorance become imminent. Therefore it will be heinous not to call Femi Fani-Kayode to order, if nothing, to at least lower the spread of ignorance.

I read with dismay and at the same time pity the way Femi Fani-kayode’s half baked-truths and vexatious fallacies derided the great Usman Ibn Fodio, Northern leaders, Fulani tribe, and Islam. Which perhaps catalyse the adrenaline to dilute his gross verbal stupidity and educate him a little bit: but before then, permit me to use this medium to condemn the activities of some alleged Fulani herdsmen in some parts of the nation and expect all well meaning Fulani to do the same: it is inhuman, ridiculous and absolutely barbaric to find joy in taken the lives of innocent citizens for any reason whatsoever. Albeit the activities of these so-called Fulani are worrisome and disgusting to a certain extent, i however feels it’s idiotic to distort facts just to paint the entire Fulani race and Islam black as Fani-kayode has often been doing in recent time. To me, Fani-Kayode’s piece “The Sons Of Futa jalon” is nothing but a continuation of his defeat aggressive syndrome against the northern region and northerners for the region’s refusal to return his demigod “the ineffectual buffoon” for another 2nd-term after failing to make any impact in the first period, through which medium he intends to incite some section of the country against others and plunge Nigeria into another civil war, just to make governance uneasy for President Muhammadu Buhari.

In his usual hypocrisy to paint the north black, the hate-monger quoted Ahmadu Bello Sardauna’s speech of out of context and even went ahead to quote the demonic Abubakar Shekau (a non Fulani), his ethnic hypocrisy further got thicker by quoting yet another concocted hogwash against the personality of President Mohammadu Buhari – despite all apologies to the President by the fabricators of such fallacy – all in an attempt to buttress his islamaphobic points. The unrepentant bigot again publicised his ignorance of history and geography of religion by insinuating that Fulani tribe originated from ??Futa Jalon in modern-day Guinea, because he read that ?Usman Ibn Fodio came from somewhere near there. This is a clear indication that Fani-Kayode lacks every bit of history and geography of the Fulani stock. Let me for the emphasis of education, educate him and his gullible sympathisers a bit:

History has it that the ancestor of Fulani is Jacob son of Israel, son of Issac, and son of Abraham. When Jacob left Canaan and went to Egypt where Joseph was established. The Israelites prospered and grew in population while living in Egypt. Fulani people descended from them. After a long time a new Pharaoh who did not know about Joseph’s fame in Egypt, came to power. He made the Israelites work hard at slave labor. The Pharaoh oppressed the people, including Fulanis who were rich in cattle. They emigrated from Egypt, some of them went back to Palestine and Syria under Moses guidance and the other crossed the Nile with their cattle and headed west. They took the name of fouth or foudh meaning those who left. A group from the latter moved along the edges of the Sahara to Touat-Air and then to West-Africa.

Those who came to Masina (in present day Mali) spread to the neighboring regions where they were rejoined by Fulani groups from Morocco. It has established that about 700AD, Fulani groups from Morocco, moved southward, and invaded the regions of Tagout, Adrar, Mauritania, and Fuuta Tooro. The cradle of the Fulani group is situated in the Senegal River valley, where Fulanis established kingdoms. Until the beginning of the IX th Century. Around that period they continued their migration in the regions of Bundu, Bambouk, Diomboko, Kaarta, and Bagana. Finally those who were concentrated in the Ferlo from the XI to the XIV century moved in various groups to the Fuuta Jalon, to the Volta river basin, to the Gurma, to the Haussa land, and to the Adamawa, Boghirme, and to Ouadai. See (Tishkoff SA, et al. (2009) The Genetic Structure and History of Africans and African Americans, 1035–1044).

At the time of their arrival to Hausa land in the early fifteenth century, many Fulani settled as clerics in Hausa city-states such as Kano, Katsina, and Zaria. Others settled among the local peoples during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. By the seventeenth century, the Hausa states had begun to gain their independence from various foreign rulers, with Gobir in present day Sokoto becoming the predominant Hausa state.

The urban culture of the Hausa was attractive to many Fulani. These Town or Settled Fulani became clerics, teachers, settlers, and judges—and in many other ways filled elite positions within the Hausa states. Soon they adopted the Hausa language, many forgetting their own Fulfulde language. Although Hausa customs exerted an influence on the Town Fulani, they did not lose touch with the Cattle or Bush Fulani. See (Ehret C (2008) The Early Livestock Raisers of Southern Africa, 7–35.)

In his drug induced elucidation, Fani-kayode thought Sokoto was where the Fulani settled first when they came to Nigeria as claimed in his mischievous piece, not knowing there were Fulanis scattered allover parts of the northern region even before the birth of Shehu Usman Ibn Fodio. And to say that it was from “Sokoto that the Fulani waged a bloody islamic war led by their spiritual father, infiltrated and conquered all what is known as Northern Nigerian today” isn’t only hypocritical of him but a sheer ignorance of history. Sheik Usman Ibn Fodio came and met established Fulani towns/kingdoms in Adamawa and several other places across the North, what Ibn Fodio did was to only call them to order.

Shehu Usman Ibn Fodio, a Fulani of the Torodbe clan migrated to Gobir, in present day Sokoto, many generations before. He was born in 1754 into a scholarly family and he and his younger brother Abdullahi, were given a broad Islamic education. At that time of his youth, Gobir, as have seen, had become the most powerful of the Hausa states, particularly in Zamfara and Kebbi, but Gobir’s domination was hated. The people generally resented the heavy taxation that was used to maintain the armies and to make the big men in society greater and richer than before. The weak feared enslavement by the strong. Though the kings at that time thought of themselves as Muslims, they did not always follow islamic principles and often tolerated and even participated in ‘pagan’ practices. The Muslim communities of Hausaland deeply resented the ‘paganism’ of their rulers and their failure to do justice to the poor. When Usman dan Fodio, at the age of twenty, returned to Gobir from Agades, where had has been taught by a Muslim revolutionary teacher, Jibril, there were many who were willing to listen to someone who would challenge their rulers. Usman dan Fodio held the attention of large crowds when he criticized the Hausa rulers for their bad government, he found eager response from his listeners. In such circumstance, many flocked to join Usman dan Fodio who was becoming a major political force in Gobir.

At a time when Shehu was oblivious of the potentials of his growing companions, the Hausa rulers were certainly not. For Shehu, the growth of his followers may only mean an end to the ignorance that propelled him into action in the first place and a hope for a more enlightened and therefore peaceful Muslim community. But for the Hausa rulers, every growth of Shehu’s followers represent a shrink in their power base and more seriously it represents a threat to their tyrannical and corrupt status-quo, where the rulers did as they pleased. As early as 1797 or so, following the rise to power of a new king in Gobir, Napata, in 1796, Shehu’s companions started to face organised state persecution, in the form of physical attack, arrests and imprisonment. Having sensed danger, Shehu started to prepare the community for a confrontation that turned out to be inevitable. The tension continued to heighten and Yunfa who took over from Napata as the king of Gobir in 1803 only made matters worse. The mood of the community had changed and the followers grew restive. Following a skirmishes and a threat for an all-out attack on the community from Yunfa, Shehu called for a migration to Gudu, a place on the boarders of Gobir just to maintain peace and avoid violence.The migration itself started in February of 1804, and before Shehu and his folowers could finish assembling at Gudu, they came under attack, first by Yunfa and consequently by other kings of Hausa states, and this was what prompted the war between Shehu and the Hausa rulers. Until April of 1806 when Shehu’s loyalists captured Kebbi, they had no base and had to be constantly on the move, carrying their families as well as their libraries, often pursued by their enemies. It was here that Shehu wrote a letter to all Hausa rulers calling them to accept good governance according to Islam principles, those that accepted Shehu’s request were subsequently issued with flags symbolising his endorsements while others who refused to accept declared war on him (Usman Ibn Fodio), Shehu with help of other kingdoms under his control fought them and eventually conquered their kingdoms. Thus forming what is today the Sokoto Caliphate.

Going by the aforementioned, one must concur with the fact that all what Fani-kayode have been saying about Shehu Ibn Fodio was a mere blackmail to portray the great Danfodio as violent and non-peaceful.

To further upgrade his gross ignorance and hatred towards the fulani tribe, Fani-Kayode went ahead to draw ethno-physical and postural similarities between the Tutsis of East Africa and the Fulani of Nigeria, tactically calling on other tribes to apply the ?”?Hutu solution” on the fulani. Thus advocating for an ethnic cleansing of the entire fulani race in Nigeria.

Worst still is Fani-Kayode’s double standard and his hypocritical support for Igbo tribe and Biafra, a tribe he once waged verbal war on with all manners of fabricated blackmail against the great Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe, calling him an ethnic bigot and describing the agitators of Biafra as terrorists. For Fani-Kayode to insinuate that “a Fulani-led Federal Government and Fulani-led Armed Forces are killing thousands of young igbos in the east simply because of their support for Nnamdi Kanu and their call for the establishment of the independent state of Biafra”, he’s clearly indicating his support to a group he once called a terrorists group. Should one be wrong to call him a terrorist sympathyser? It is not surprising that the hate-monger has now became an Igbo friend, and so also not surprising to see the gullible Igbos accepting him back as a friend. This is a man who always changes colour when it serves his purpose, he’s always changing identity to go in line with his hypocritical way of life.

Fani-Kayode even cited the Zaria fracas between the military and the members of the shiite islamic movement as a move by President Buhari and Gen Tukur Burutai to implement the Fulani agenda of Islamizing Nigeria. All in his quest to demonise Islam, Muslims, the Fulani tribe(s) and the present day leadership of President Mohammadu Buhari. What a hypocrisy!

What Femi Fani-Kayode and his likes need to understand here is that the ongoing crisis involving Fulani herdsmen in some sections of the country has no religious affiliation neither ethnic, the Fulani herders feel victims of injustice because their cattle are killed or stolen and are not compensated for losses incurred, the anger resulting from this situation thus drives them to behave in the terrible way they have been behaving so far. As one can see, the problem is primarily economic not religious or ethnical contrary to how the agents of ethno-religious division have been pointing out in recent times. I am not trying to justify the actions of these so-callled Fulani herdsmen, what I am not contend with is making their atrocity a communal crime rather than individual, the point I am trying to make is that persecuting Islam or the entire Fulani tribe for the actions of some demonic few or aligning it to the struggles of Shehu Usman Ibn Fodio is absolutely an injustice to Islam and the Fulani clan in general. Crime knows no tribe, region or religion, we have criminals from all races and beliefs who are involved in various acts of crimes worldwide. Is it fair to demonise the Yoruba tribe for reasons that their kinsmen are involved armed robbery or demonise the Igbo for the actions of kidnappers and baby factory operators? Then why Fulani? Why Islam?

Sincerely speaking, Fani-Kayode with his write-up has only substantiated the fact that he is an unrepentant ethnocentric and eccentric, who view all races apart from his as inferior and second-class, he has only succeeded in displaying his unrefined and undiluted mediocre and ethnic stupidity. I pity those who see him as a role model, because all they will be gaining from their role model is gross ignorance, hypocrisy, irresponsibility, and a large chunk of dedicative immorality. At a time when Nigeria continue to heal gradually from the blatant rape on its national treasury and outrageous pen robbery supervised by Jonathan and co. (Femi Fani-Kayode inclusive), the unrepentant son of an ethnic miscarriage continue to heat up the polity and ignite violence in continuation of his commitments to see Nigeria fail under the stewardship of President Mohammadu Buhari.

Sincerely, Fani- Kayode’s article under reference is the most idiotic, pitiful, hypocritical, devilish and watery article I have ever read. He is indeed all a graduate of Cambridge University should not be – a loose, unpatriotic and an ineffectual buffoon. He has so much degenerates himself into an ethnic nuisance, a political liability and a religious jackass. Calling anyone Femi Fani-Kayode in Nigeria today, is a cool and polite way of saying that person is an IDIOT.

…He who solves a problem with a problem will always find a problem waiting – African proverb

By the time you read this, another twist would have been added to the drama involving the almost certain and total collapse of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This fast-moving melodrama will continue to engage public attention for quite a while, and in the tradition of the PDP, it will involve twists and turns that are powered exclusively by the interests of its members who have occupied its highest offices or key political positions in the nation. If there are members of the party who would not have not received category ‘A’ invitations to state functions between 1999 to 2015, they will just have to hope that there are fragments of the party they can still hold on to by June this year.
The emergence of Ali Modu Sheriff as national chairman of the party is captured in the Hausa adage involving a mad woman who goes to collect firewood. She will labour to make a bundle much too big for her to lift and carry home. Every time she fails to lift it to her head, she will untie and add more pieces of wood to the bundle. She will then try to lift the now heavier bundle. Contrary thought could see Sheriff’s appointment as an audacious move by a remnant of a local party on the run to rally the troops and organize a fight back. Those who will see it this way will need to redefine audacity to include the idea of a soldier who shoots himself in both feet, hoping the enemy will fear him for his seeming courage.
The more sophisticated elements of the party still holding on to their membership cards may be tempted to think Sheriff’s emergence at the head of a party he helped destroy is a good example of thinking outside the box. This will make sense in circles where the box has no defined space or value, and thinking around it is limited to very few with an identifiable record of interpreting the PDP’s tailspin to ignominy. There could be a few others who will insist that Sheriff is product of a party tradition which routinely abandons merit, integrity, propriety or justice the moment money, power and influence show their faces. In a context where few PDP chieftains from the Northeast today will step out into the limelight being beamed all over by the E.F.C.C, Sheriff’s bravado will disappoint those elements in the party who believe that its descent can be arrested.
The frenzy of activities following the emergence of Sheriff as chairman of PDP should remind Nigerians that huge segments of the nation’s political elite are still holed up in a structure that has been sinking in the last three years. A zoning policy that has been its undoing owing to the failure of its powerful people to rein in their ambitions has been trusted to produce a leader for the party that could not have been foreseen by the most gifted of seers. From a region with an army of members who had wielded enormous powers, you would safely have won a bet if you had mentioned ten former governors, chairmen, ministers, legislators and any one of the many who grew fat on the party’s patronage to emerge in place of Sheriff. With muscle from the only two PDP governors in the entire north, former President Jonathan and governors from the PDP strongholds of the Southeast and South-South, Sheriff now finds himself at the head of a party that has shrunk from Post Traumatic Defeat Disorder and odious revelations of its stewardship. The exodus from the party in the north will now assume dimensions of a stampede, and a few loyalists may hide their passion for the party from relations and friends.
It is arguable if Sheriff will be able to lead the PDP in the ordinary sense of the word. Organs of the party will overwhelmingly reject him or split around him. Previously-powerful members of the party who were governors, ministers or legislators will shake his chair until he falls off, or they bring the entire roof down. When you see people like Femi Fani-Kayode holding their noses in Sheriff’s presence, you know you have reached the bottom in the search for noxious infamy. Yet, on merit alone, no two souls deserve each other’s intimate company more than these two. If Jonathan’s ministers can take a break from lamenting the tightening noose of the E.F.C.C to denounce Sheriff and work to unseat him, it is obvious that his projected three months in the chair are unlikely to be of any value to the party.
Less-informed observers may wonder what makes Sheriff so attractive to hostility from many of the powerful members of his party. They may find answers from those who put some store in political fidelity. Along with Attahiru Bafarawa, this is a politician who has made the full rounds of the political terrain, so much so that you will be forgiven for assuming that they wake up every morning asking which is their current political party. What do you call a man who is comfortable marrying a woman that has been married four or five times to different men, some of them twice?
There will be people who will say a former two-term governor and three times senator facing charges by the E.F.C.C; one whose relationship with the roots, growth and development of Boko Haram is still a matter of intense interest; one who enjoyed and still enjoys intimate relationship with President Jonathan(who himself is walking free owing only to the slippery covers of political goodwill);and a politician whose last outing in his home state was a humiliating defeat in a contest to return to the senate, is not suited to lead the PDP even for one week. These will be people who are largely untutored in the history and philosophy of the PDP. Sheriff’s emergence aptly captures the logical development and decline of the PDP, and those that will fight him will benefit only from discovering that the party may not be worth fighting for.
Barring a miracle and a disastrous failure of the All Progressives Party (APC) to hold together and lead effectively, the PDP as a party is all but practically finished. It will leave a vacuum that could negatively affect the political process. Without the PDP or another party to provide a credible opposition to the APC, the latter will resemble the lone prizefighter in the ring who has to keep punching himself to test his strength and endurance. He will not know how he will fare against a real opposition. The APC has much to learn from the current misfortunes of the PDP. It will also benefit from informed vigilance over PDP’s live parts in the national assembly and within the APC itself.

Count your blessings name them one by one
Count your blessings see what God has done
Count your blessings, name them one by one
And it will surprise you what the Lord has done

The first surprise about what the Lord has done for Nigerian Christendom in the year of our Lord twenty thousand and sixteen is to make this famous Christian hymn so old school that it no longer applies to the Nigerian shepherd.

Blessings that you could count one by one are old-fashioned and old school. If your blessings arrive in shiploads, you should not be able to count them one by one and that, precisely, is what has happened to Nigerian Christendom so far this year.

The Nigerian Christian shepherd has had more blessings this year than the recipients of the Dasuki/Jonathan windfall. The Nigerian prosperity Pentecostal shepherd has had more blessings this year than the intended beneficiaries of the gargantuan yams in President Buhari’s 2016 budget. And he intends to shout about his blessings on the rooftops in accordance with the Biblical injunction not to hide light under a bushel.

Thus it was that Biodun Fatoyinbo, founder and chief shepherd of the Commonwealth of Zion Assembly in Abuja, felt the need to show the abundance of blessings that has befallen the shepherds of Nigerian Christendom in recent times.

People often think that the blessings of Nigerian new age Christian shepherds lie in wealth and earthly possessions rivalled only by Nigerian politicians: the mansions and the private jets; the business empires and the hyper-elitist private Universities; the Bentleys and the Lamborghinis; the Savile Row suits and the Ferragamo shoes; the jerry curls, the manicure, the pedicure and general grooming done once a month in Milan or Paris.

A Nigerian shepherd will normally be in this elite league within a few years of starting a church but Biodun Fatoyinbo of COZA recently made a powerful statement that these things are not the greatest blessings a shepherd can expect in Nigerian Christendom. The greatest blessing of our contemporary shepherds lies in the fact that the Christian God has granted them the extraordinary fortune of being surrounded by the sort of sheep that Christian shepherds all over the world can only dream of.

It is true that shepherds in South Africa are blessed with sheep who spend their lives eating grass. It is true that shepherds in Kenya are blessed with female sheep who can be ordered to come to church and leave their bras and panties at home in order to guarantee freer and more direct access unto the Lord. These pale in comparison to the sheep with which the Nigerian shepherd is blessed.

God has been so good to the Nigerian shepherd that he did not stop at blessing him with the sort of sheep who populate Nigeria’s vast Christendom but has also ensured that Bible verses and injunctions could be modified for Nigerian conditions and with the express approval of the sheep. Says the Bible: “I am the good shepherd. The good shepherd lays down his life for the sheep.” It does not work this way in Nigerian Christendom because the shepherd is blessed with a sheep ready to bleed his or her own country to death and lay the life of his or her own country down for the material comfort of the shepherd.

That is why the Nigerian sheep in charge of funds to build roads and hospitals and schools will steal money meant for 180 million people and tithe it to fund the lifestyle of his or her shepherd. The Nigerian sheep who is too lowly and too poor to be in the position to bleed Nigeria to death for the sake of his shepherd will bleed himself to death and go into debt just to service the lifestyle of his shepherd.

That is why it was so easy for Pastor Biodun Fatoyinbo of COZA to have been embroiled two years ago in a sex scandal whose outcome could have been predicted by just about any keen student of the abundant blessings of the Nigerian shepherd. Pastor Fatoyinbo sexually assaulted Ese Walters, promised “a robust response” to the lady’s frenzied allegations, and went ahead to ignore his country and people, all the while vigorously acclaimed by his sheep.

It is perhaps not true to say that Pastor Fatoyinbo has not offered his robust response yet. He was recently in Dubai for his birthday bash – arguably the most ostentatious birthday party by a Nigerian so far this year. That is the robust response of a shepherd who knows his sheep and knows his country. The birthday in Dubai, the white-attired yacht party, and all that jazz do not point to a shepherd counting his years on earth and thanking his creator for life. This is a man counting his blessings, yamming them one by one, surprised by the sort of sheep that God has gutted his church with.

But Pastor Biodun Fatoyinbo is not alone. He is not an exception to this dominant version of blessings in Nigerian Christendom. Recently, news and photos went viral of a shepherd who goes by the name Dr. Chris Okafor purportedly raising a child from the dead.

Thank God for high resolution JPEG. Very beautiful photos. Real child, looking every bit like a corpse. Lifeless. Only God knows the stress and dehumanization that the unconscious child is put through before being “raised from the dead” by Dr. Chris Okafor. In saner climes, Dr. Chris Okafor would be answering a string of criminal indictments ranging from child endangerment to child abuse and exploitation. He would seriously risk jail time for that stunt.

But Dr. Chris Okafor is one of Nigeria’s blessed shepherds. He knows his sheep. He knows that they are like Biodun Fatoyinbo’s sheep and the sheep of every other shepherd in Nigeria’s prosperity Pentecostal madness. He knows what this “touch not my anointed” sheep will do to the author of this essay once they read it – if they read it.

That is why Dr. Okafor can subject a child to so much abuse openly in the 21st century and suffer zero consequences. On the contrary, he is counting the abundant blessing of the kind of sheep God has given him!

https://www.naij.com/736970-nigerian-pastors-counting-blessings-yamming-one-one.html

Our nation is currently submerged in a currency crisis. The value of our national currency is tumbling against the dollar on a daily basis, and our foreign exchange reserves continue to dwindle as a result of the continuous fall in the price of crude oil. In recent months, there has been a rigorous debate as to whether the devaluation of our currency is the answer to these problems, and what specific measures need to be put in place to stabilize our currency and prevent further damage to our fragile economy. As the debate rages on, the damage to the naira, the economy, and the psyche of our people has intensified. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) appears to have lost significant control of the situation, and speculators, currency traffickers and perpetrators of arbitrage have seized the initiative in the parallel market.

It is fair to say that under President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure, the Nigerian Financial Sector has endured its reasonable share of activity and critical scrutiny. Three major incidents have stood out, and these incidents are intertwined in terms of the collective impact they have all had on the sustained call to devalue the Naira. First, in the past year alone (dating back to the previous administration), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reeled out a series of policy reforms on the foreign exchange market that has sent panic to the market. Leading up to the general elections conducted last year, the market began to experience a significant shortage of dollars. This dwindling of our reserves was caused by falling oil prices, while the huge demand was fuelled by election spending and the accompanying market nervousness in the aftermath of the change of government. Secondly, the Federal Government issued a directive on the consolidation of Government revenues into a single treasury account (TSA), a bold policy currently being implemented at its infancy stages by the CBN. Buhari

The immediate effect of this policy has been the estimated movement of over N2 trillion from private banks to the CBN, which has dipped liquidity and spiked interbank and other interest rates. Thirdly, and probably as a result of the first two points, we received the curious news sometime in 2015 that JP Morgan Chase-an American-based International Financial Service Firm- would be delisting Nigeria from its Government Bond Index for Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) in what they called “a phased-out process” between September and October this year. JP Morgan cited a lack of transparency and liquidity in our foreign exchange market as the primary reason for its decision. The significance of this announcement cannot be understated, because JP Morgan Chase provides the pricing and trading platform for foreign investors who hold or are planning to hold Nigerian Government-issued bonds, and they also create and sustain an active market for these bonds.

The impact of these incidents collectively has resulted in a panic sell-off at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) by foreign investors in the market. The NSE market capitalization of listed equities instantly lost about N311 billion or 2.98%. In addition, the announcement threatened the stability of the Nigerian Bond market and the ability of the Government to use the market to raise funds in the near future. The CBN was forced into damage-control by issuing a public statement to the effect that it disagrees with the expulsion, and denied the claim of a lack of transparency and liquidity in the market. Some industry analysts have joined in supporting the CBN’s statement, while downplaying the possible negative effects on foreign investment and the Nigerian economy.
You see, JP Morgan’s argument has been fairly straightforward: “We know the level of your reserve and we know it is dwindling. We know why you have been tinkering with your foreign exchange policy in recent times: because you are protecting your naira and keeping the value low. We know that your currency is overvalued and underpriced. So, release your hold on pricing mechanisms and let the forces of ‘demand and supply’ determine price”. Of course, JP Morgan’s primary interest is the protection of its clients- the foreign investors playing in the bond market- because that is its main responsibility.

These major action points, alongside some of the uncertainties that have arisen as the Federal Government grapples with how to articulate its holistic fiscal policy and medium-term Economic framework, have created deep-rooted cracks on the naira exchange rate. The cumulative effect has been the sustained pressure (both locally and internationally) carefully mounted on the CBN to devalue the naira to reflect its ‘true’ value at the parallel market. The pressure is on the government to remove its hold on the official rate by moving the rate closer to the parallel market rate, with the expectation that a higher official rate would price the scarce foreign exchange appropriately and attract players back to the official market, thereby improving supply and increasing market stability. If historical antecedents are anything to go by, this devaluation proposition is unlikely to have the desired effect.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, so in our attempt to adopting bold, decisive and creative solutions to stop the economic bleeding, we must properly educate ourselves on our current situation, and how we got here in the first place. It is a situation that has played itself out in countries like Brazil, Argentina, Greece and Venezuela. Some of these countries survived their currency quagmire by taking bold, decisive and creative steps to limit the damage to their economy and return their currency back to normalcy. In actual fact, this is not a situation that is completely unfamiliar to us.

The rapid evolution of the Nigerian foreign exchange market began in 1982, when comprehensive foreign exchange controls were enacted to manage the monetary crises that ensued that year. We subsequently moved to the era of Second-tier Foreign Exchange Market (SFEM), introduced in 1986 to manage the fall-out of the exchange control system introduced in 1982. Further liberalization reform measures were introduced by the introduction of the Bureau-De-Change (BDC) market to improve access to foreign exchange by small and retail users. This particular measure, without clear guidelines and monitoring systems, pushed the parallel market to the forefront with full force. The resultant volatility caused by the flourishing parallel market led to the introduction of further reforms by way of the Foreign Exchange Market in 1994. These new reforms included the formal pegging of the naira exchange rate, the centralization of the market at the CBN, the restriction of the operations of BDCs, and the discontinuation of the Open Accounts and Bills for Collection System as a means of payment. Further measures were implemented in 1995, with the introduction of the Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (AFEM) when, for the first time, the market was liberalized with end-users able to buy and sell foreign exchange from CBN through banks at market determined rates. By 1999, we began to witness a further liberalization of the market by the introduction of the Inter-bank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM).

The current foreign exchange regime is an off-shoot of the last major reforms between 1995 and 1999. The supply of foreign exchange has been dwindling since the price of crude oil started its free-fall in 2015, whilst foreign exchange demand has been on the rise due to market confusion, its negative perception of future supply, recent CBN measures to manage demand and an overall loss of confidence in the market by foreign investors and speculative dealers in foreign exchange. Indeed, the structural impediments or the 90s are still intact today. Rather than removing the bureaucratic bottlenecks in the system, successive CBN administrations have been focusing on defending the naira by tinkering with the pricing mechanism, while letting illegal operators take the initiative. The result of this is the existence of a two-tier market: the legal (official) market, and the illegal (parallel) market.

The official market comprises of the CBN as the main supplier, and banks, oil companies, non-oil exporters, Bureau de Change (BDC) licensed operators and legitimate end-users who deal in the inter-bank and autonomous trading window within the banking system. The CBN has kept a lid on the rate in this market at around 199 naira to the dollar. This is the only legal foreign exchange market supported by existing laws. On the other hand, the parallel market comprises of a collection of players including speculators, currency traders, street currency hawkers, tourists, travellers, traders, small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) and migrants from the official market attracted by the huge differentials in the rates for arbitrage opportunities, and the ease and simplicity of the market. The problem has been further compounded by the CBN’s conscious and deliberate position to ignore the parallel market’s existence by pretending that there is only one exchange rate. Its stubbornness has driven buyers and sellers to the parallel market, making the official market more unstable.

Of course, the primary objective has always been the efficient management of the foreign exchange market by determining the true price of foreign currency vis-a-vis the naira. The reality is that nobody- including the CBN- knows the true value of the naira. The value of a currency is its price, just like price determines the value of goods and services. The Naira-Dollar ‘product’ is like any other good; its price is determined by a complex interplay of demand and supply, which forms the price at equilibrium. The real quagmire is this: who knows the actual demand and supply? Of course, the CBN knows how much dollars are available for sale on a weekly basis, and how much naira is utilized to meet the demand for the dollar. The information that the CBN possesses comes from its position as the major supplier of both currencies, and its main function as the banker to our banks and the custodian of the foreign exchange market. In truth however, nobody has the authentic information on the actual volumes of Naira and Dollars chasing each other in our economy.

To make matters more complicated, this is only a segment of the market. For example, the official exchange rate is pegged at approximately N199 to $1 because it is based on CBN’s information on the official demand and supply, which is supposed to be the equilibrium price. Unfortunately, the mechanism for arriving at this rate is largely discretionary and unscientific. The CBN may have been right in arriving at this rate, but it very well may have been wrong in arriving at this rate as well. The parallel market rate is hovering around N400-$1 today because the market gets some of its supply from the CBN and will naturally add profit to resell. It is selling mostly cash, which always sells at a premium. Cash has a monopoly because the traders in this market have perfected the art of rigging rates. All these aggregately ensure that the parallel market rates will forever be ahead of the official rates. It is wrong to use the parallel market rate as a reference point because it is not determined by any traceable interplay of demand and supply. The rate is rigged and illegal, and should be ignored in its entirety.

Indeed, it is not a surprise that the parallel market is probably bigger and more active than the official CBN market. Nobody knows the exact volume of dollars being traded in this unofficial market, or the naira-cash floating outside the banking system that is being used to buy and sell dollars. We do not have accurate estimates on the number of mallams, or the total volume being traded by them daily. We do not know the exact volume being traded by unregistered foreign exchange dealers all over the country. We also do not know the exact amount of raw cash dollars imported and exported by Nigerians and foreigners. So, how then can you determine the equilibrium price of a market with so many unknowns!

President Buhari is correct in believing that our currency does not need to be devalued – for the time being. For example, no amount of devaluation will bring up the price of oil. Devaluation will not eliminate parallel market players, nor will it necessarily increase the supply of dollars into the market. In actual fact, devaluation will simply push the official rate (and by extension, the parallel rate) up, thereby compounding the currency crisis and further driving more players to the parallel market. Inflation will rise, impacting the cost of essential products and services within our economy.

The sum-total of the aforementioned points is that it is unhelpful to conclude that our naira should be devalued, because we simply do not have any rational indices for measuring the naira’s true value. A further devaluation will devastate our economy because it will technically make our imports more expensive and our exports cheaper. This is somewhat unhelpful to us because we import practically everything and export very little except oil, whose price is determined internationally and whose supply is quota-based. Therefore, the gains of devaluation would be inapplicable to our situation, while the adverse effects- higher import prices, higher rate of inflation, more pressure on the demand for dollar, higher unemployment and general recession- would be catastrophic to us.

Perhaps, a silver lining in all of this can be adduced from our recent experience with petroleum importation, pricing and marketing. The introduction of the subsidy regime by the Obasanjo administration around 2005- whilst commendable in its intent to maintain a low pump price on our imported petroleum products- turned out to be a catastrophic and costly error on the part of the previous administrations that retained it. The subsidy-era was marred by market instability, regular fuel shortages, a thriving black market for fuel and huge debts allegedly owed to importers. Now that the subsidy regime is virtually non-existent, the market has gradually become stable, and many of the associated problems have disappeared. First, there is only one recognized market price (at the filling stations) across the country. Secondly, there no longer exists a thriving parallel market for petrol; there simply is no need for one, as there is no scarcity or bottleneck in the supply chain for now. Thirdly, suppliers are motivated to supply because the pump price has been determined by factoring all possible costs and profit margin from point of purchase to point of sale. In addition, this system will always adjust the pump price mechanically, thereby guaranteeing regular supply at all times. The end result is that consumers are invariably assured that supply will be regular and price will continue to be market-determined.

There is no guarantee that this current solution will be permanent, but it is at least a marked improvement from the previous uncertainty. A replication of this way of thinking by the CBN will go a long way towards returning normalcy to our currency market.
What then is the way forward with our currency? First, the Federal Government has to fast-track its efforts towards implementing a sustainable fiscal policy regime tailored towards boosting our local industry. Curbing corruption, promoting import substitution and the exportation of indigenous products will go a long way in achieving this aim. Countries like India, South Africa, Malaysia, Indonesia and Egypt have little or no oil dollars, but all have more stable currencies and stronger liquidity than we currently do. They have been able to successfully tap into these “other sources” and develop a stable foreign exchange system with a thriving market to boost supply and manage demand.

Secondly, a critical solution lies in our ability to bring sanity to our foreign exchange system and have better controls over the demand and supply mechanism. As a matter of national emergency, the parallel market has to be destroyed. The Foreign Exchange (Monitoring & Miscellaneous Provisions) act of 1995 as amended, the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act of 2011 and other Laws of the Federation are some of the legal tools available to enforce the collapse of the parallel market.

The CBN has to overhaul the foreign exchange regime by bringing all legitimate buyers and sellers into the official market. For example, the use of credit cards to make purchases online and in foreign currencies should be re-introduced, with each authorized dealer setting its own limit depending on capacity. The way to do this is to simplify the buying and selling process by making documentation easy and seamless, and accommodate all economic users of foreign exchange. The buying and selling process could be simplified through the authorized dealers with clear and unambiguous rules, while CBN provides adequate supply to the market at all times.
Finally, and perhaps most crucially, the CBN must create a buyer surcharge and seller premium system. Under this system, buyers of foreign exchange for products and services categorised as essential or critical to the economy would be sold foreign exchange at the official buying rate. Rather than impose restrictions and/or bans on other users of foreign exchange outside the essential list, the foreign exchange could be sold to non-essential categories at the same official buying rate (a single exchange rate system) but with an additional fixed surcharge imposed for accessing foreign exchange. This will be paid upfront at the point of purchase to the coffers of government. It can be categorized as a special tax for users of foreign exchange for purposes considered as non-essential or non-contributory to the progress of the economy. This special tax becomes a premium to government. It will be an immediate boost to the national revenue, and the Government may choose to utilize this fund to promote and boost the non-oil export sector. It will also make these products and services more expensive, and possibly have the long term effect of discouraging the importation of non-essential items.

Simultaneously, suppliers of foreign exchange to the market can be incentivized into selling at the official selling rate, while also earning an “incentive premium”. It should be noted that the CBN is not the only supplier to the market. Other suppliers include oil firms, exporting firms, Nigerians in diaspora, foreign investors, foreign lenders, etc. These suppliers could provide a much higher volume to the market than the CBN if motivated and encouraged. For example, an incentive premium of 10% could be paid from the surcharge proceeds to encourage and motivate suppliers to bring their foreign exchange to the official market. This system of surcharge and premium could be sustained until the market stabilizes. The CBN would simply midwife the process by maintaining and aggregating adequate supply into the market as much as possible. It would also be responsible for posting the official daily buying and selling rates based on market fundamentals, managing the surcharge and premium regime, and determining the categorization of essential users on a periodic basis. It should also put in place a regular audit and monitoring process to ensure strict compliance and adherence.

The immediate effect of effectively implementing the above recommendations will be a single official foreign exchange market with all players (buyers, sellers, dealers, government) adhering to the same set of rules and regulations. The parallel market would die a natural death, and there will be an efficient pricing mechanism with a single exchange rate. This in turn will lead to an effective and efficient management of our foreign exchange reserves, and will enhance the attraction of foreign exchange into the system from other sources. Putting the tax and incentive mechanism in place will have the combined effect of encouraging supply and penalizing the frivolous use of our scarce foreign exchange. This also creates a new source of revenue for the Government, and acts as a check on those who would normally cheat on import-duty payments. The economic impact will be appreciation or depreciation, but not a devaluation of the value of the naira. There will be market and price stability, gradual confidence restored back to the single market and demand and supply equilibrium.

It would become easier for the Federal Government to deploy its security apparatus and other legal instruments towards chasing away the remnant players in the illegal market when the CBN successfully brings the legal buyers and sellers into the official market. With regards to the parallel market operators, the Government should apply the same vigor that it is adopting in its pursuit of corrupt officials, because every effort to manage our foreign exchange market will simply be like pouring water into a woven basket until the parallel market is eliminated or reduced to insignificance.

Any attempt to devalue the currency for the time being would amount to treating an ailment without a proper diagnosis. In fact, many of these issues have been with us for over 35 years. They are not going away until we take a firm stance towards rendering the underground foreign exchange market insignificant and irrelevant. This will allow us to focus on addressing the actual value of our currency against the dollar and other currencies.
Otunba Femi Pedro is a Banker and an Economist. He is a former Deputy Governor of Lagos State, and the former Managing Director of First Atlantic Bank (FinBank) Plc. He can be reached via the Twitter Handle: @femipedro